New long term earthquake forecast for California

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) have released a new long term earthquake forecast for the U.S. state of California. The new study revises previous estimates for the chances of having large earthquakes over the next several decades.

USGS scientists working on the project estimate the frequency of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, to occur around every 6.3 years. This is slightly larger than previous estimates of 4.8 years.

However, in the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7 percent to about 7 percent.

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3). Source: USGS

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3).
Source: USGS

More Information:
[1] http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4146&from=rss#.VQvy5ESA9vx
[2] http://www.wgcep.org/UCERF3

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