With the World’s population now past 7 billion and projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050, stress on the food production system is at an all time high. To make matters worse it appears that our crop yields may fall victim to the effects of climate change.
A recent study, published in Nature Climate Change, led by the University of Leeds and CGS academics has shown that global warming of only 2°C will be detrimental to the production of rice, wheat and maize in temperate and tropical regions, with reduced yields from the 2030s onwards.
“Climate change means a less predictable harvest, with different countries winning and losing in different years. The overall picture remains negative, and we are now starting to see how research can support adaptation by avoiding the worse impacts,” says lead author Professor Andy Challinor.
The study shows that we will see, on average, an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onwards. The impact will be greatest in the second half of the century, when decreases of over 25% will become increasingly common.
These statistics already account for minor adaptation techniques employed by farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change, such as small adjustments in the crop variety and planting date.
The latest IPCC reports state that the expected temperature increase for the end of the century is somewhere between 1.5 and 4 degree Celsius. And so, unless drastic measures are taken place the warming will happen. And thus, major agricultural transformations and innovations will be needed in order to safeguard crop yields for future generations.
Read the full study here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n4/full/nclimate2153.html
At least some increase in global temperatures over the next few decades is now generally accepted as inevitable. However due to the still not fully understood nature of our climate and the interplay between its complex feedback systems, models still do not agree on the magnitude of the changes expected on a regional scale. Therefore, policy makers have, more often than not, been avoiding the issue of addressing the climatic affects on future crop yields.
According to a United Nations report, in 2007 agriculture accounted for 45 per cent of the world’s labour force, or about 1.3 billion people. In developing countries it was slightly higher at 55 per cent with the figure being closer to 66 per cent in many parts of Africa and Asia.
In a recent publication, CGS academic Andy Challinor and co-workers attempt to address the issue of how farmers can adapt to a warming world. Case studies from Sri Lanka and Central America illustrate how a “no-regrets” adaptation approach can benefit farming communities and society regardless of the magnitude and timing of the warming itself.
The “no-regrets” approach to climate adaptation basically starts off by analysing the capacity of socioeconomic groups such as communities, industries or countries. Adaptations strategies are then proposed that are both economically and politically feasible over a range of possible climatic futures.
Sri Lanka is a country heavily dependent on agriculture. Current climate model predictions for changes in annual precipitation vary in magnitude and even direction of change, i.e some predict increases in rainfall while others predict a drop for a range of emission scenarios.
Given such uncertain predictions the government of Sri Lanka took a pragmatic approach to climate adaption. It took into account the current capacity of local farmers and used an analysis of district level vulnerability to implement cost effective, low risk responses to high vulnerability districts.
Strategies implemented include the restoration of ancient water storage tank systems to harvest rainwater during the wet season to be used later in the dry season, the development of sustainable groundwater usage, adoption of microirrigation technologies and wastewater reuse. These “no-regrets” changes enable a more sustainable approach to farming for Sri Lankan communities.
In Nicaragua 14% of the gross domestic product comes from coffee exports. While coffea arabica is the main source of livelihood for many farmers it is a crop very sensitive to climatic conditions. It requires stable temperatures between 19-22 degrees Celcius and little variation in annual rainfall. This translates into only certain altitudinal bands being suitable for arabica plantations. In Nicaragua this band lies between 400-1400m above sea level while in Columbia it is 1200-1800m.
Most climate models for this region predict a temperature rise over the next few decades but the models do not agree on the magnitude of the increase. For example, a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celcius (one of the more optimistic estimates) would result in a 400m change in the elevation range of the crop, equivalent to a loss of two thirds of the current altitudinal range.
The “no-regrets” adaptation plan for this region involves a change to a different crop, one more favourable to increased temperatures. At lower elevations arabica can be replaced with cocoa which has a similar cash value and is better suited to the higher temperature conditions. At higher altitudes in regions newly becoming suitable to coffee plantations the environmental impacts of the crop is considered to be too harmful. The region in between must involve a dynamic approach where farmers respond to the changing climate by adjusting their agricultural practices. Incremental adaptations through greater shading and other management practices including diversification will be the appropriate response.
Feeding the future
Despite uncertainties in regional climate forecasts much progress can be made by focusing on what we do know. By assessing the current capacity of local governments and farmers simple adaptation strategies can be implemented which encompass a range of probable climate futures. It is clear that as our climate continues to warm the affects on agriculture will become increasingly visible. We must start embracing changes to our agricultural practices and adaptation strategies. With a world even now, under food shortages we cannot afford to remain indifferent.
“Climate projections will always have a degree of uncertainty, but we need to stop using uncertainty as a rationale for inaction,” says Dr Sonja Vermeulen, head of research at Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).