This blog will now be discontinued

Hi everyone,

Many thanks for your support over the years. We have decided to discontinue this blog due to re-organisations within CGS and the School of Earth and Environment.

Ekbal will continue to blog about all things related to climate and geohazards on his new site at:

Some of the content from this site will also be migrated over to his blog.

You can also follow Ekbal on twitter at @ekh_rocksci.

Many thanks the comments and feedback.
CGS social media

New long term earthquake forecast for California

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) have released a new long term earthquake forecast for the U.S. state of California. The new study revises previous estimates for the chances of having large earthquakes over the next several decades.

USGS scientists working on the project estimate the frequency of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, to occur around every 6.3 years. This is slightly larger than previous estimates of 4.8 years.

However, in the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7 percent to about 7 percent.

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3). Source: USGS

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3).
Source: USGS

More Information:

Strong winds and heavy rain affect parts of the UK

Official blog of the Met Office news team

After an exceptionally dry September, the UK has seen its first bout of widespread heavy rain and strong winds so far this autumn. An area of low pressure centred close to Iceland has driven a cold front eastwards across Britain, bringing unsettled weather, particularly in the west.

Highest rainfall totals

Some of the highest rainfall totals are shown below (between 10pm (5th October) to 10am (6th October):


Strongest wind gusts

There have been some strong wind gusts in parts, particularly across exposed western areas. The highest gusts are below:

06/10/2014 02:00TIREEARGYLL77
06/10/2014 05:00MACHRIHANISHARGYLL75

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Driest start to September in over 50 years

Official blog of the Met Office news team

The first half of September has been exceptionally dry across much of the UK and temperatures for many areas have also been well above average, according to provisional Met Office statistics.

Figures up to 15th September show there has been 6.7 mm of rain across the UK, which is just 7% of the September average of 96mm. We would normally expect about half of the average monthly rainfall to have fallen by this point in the month.

This makes it the driest first half of September for the UK in available records back to 1960. It’s also the driest start to September for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but not for England – 1997 and 2003 were drier.

Map showing actual rainfall across the UK from 1-15 September. All parts of the UK have been drier than average. Map showing actual rainfall across the UK from 1-15 September. All parts of the UK have been drier than average.

Looking at individual countries, Wales has been the driest with less…

View original post 314 more words


Welcome to the Climate and Geohazard Services’ blog. CGS is an interdisciplinary group of experts based at the University of Leeds, UK. We are an academic research group addressing the impact associated with a changing climate, natural hazards and their contingent risks. Our expertise covers a broad range of topics from the study of climate change, earthquake and volcanic hazards to the sustainable management of water resources in Africa.

The aim of this blog is to raise awareness of research and developments in the fields of climate science and natural hazards; not only at Leeds but also from the global scientific community.

We’d like the blog to be a source of useful information for anyone interested in these important topics. As such the posts will be written with the non-expert readers in mind.
Healthy debate and discussions concerning any posts are thoroughly encouraged. Please remember to keep any comments and replies civil. The moderator will remove all spam and/or any misuse of the comments feature.

If anyone would like to contribute a guest blog or become a regular blogger please email me (Ekbal Hussain) at

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